A decade following the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that polarised the country and unleashed turmoil, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two leading commentators from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Seeks to Stir Debate
The duo have examined the political, economic and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the topic with a roadshow of public talks that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely divided society where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the victorious side are uncertain precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim this point is approaching, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain when or if there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unification has hidden the lack of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. To illustrate, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, neither author advocates unity or the status quo. Both authors two essays that seek objectivity in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling economic and social figures, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Arguments range over identity markers, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to inform and provoke conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said the writer. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there could be good arguments on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they prefer unification but reject increased taxation or introducing a new flag to recognise unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist considers a national vote in his era is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent official who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified points, he stated. "One side will succeed here and somebody will in the end not succeed but each side has possesses something to learn from the other's viewpoints."
Request for Broader Debate
Westminster must engage with the debate, said the analyst. "This involves your state. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."
