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Elections are now in progress for parliamentary elections in Holland, with current polling data suggesting that the anti-immigration firebrand Geert Wilders and his PVV party may repeat their emerge victorious, although analysts suggest the party stands little chance of joining the future coalition.

Survey Results and Election Dynamics

Wilders' party, which in the last election achieved a shock top result and established a multi-party all-conservative coalition that lasted barely a year, is now marginally ahead in surveys and is forecast to secure between 24 to 28 seats in the 150-seat house of representatives.

Nevertheless, the far-right party's popularity has dipped since the previous election, when it won 37 seats. Every significant political group have publicly ruled out forming a government with the PVV leader, who triggered the fall of the previous government in the summer over disagreements concerning his controversial immigration proposals.

Major Parties and Forecasts

At the end of a election period dominated by topics such as migration, medical expenses, and the nation's acute housing shortage, the centre-left GL/PvdA coalition, headed by ex-EU official Frans Timmermans, is running a close second, projected to gain between 22 and 26 parliamentary seats.

Also performing well is the liberal-progressive Democrats 66, projected to increase its seat count by almost five times to 21 to 25 seats, while the right-leaning Christian Democrats (CDA) is expected to more than double its number of MPs to between 18 to 22.

The outgoing cabinet members – which included the Freedom Party, liberal-conservative VVD, populist Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB), and NSC – are all forecast to lose seats, with several facing heavy losses.

Voting Process and Fragmentation

Under the proportional Dutch system, gaining just 0.67% of the vote earns a party one MP. Among the two dozen political groups contesting the election – including parties for the over-50s, youth parties, for animals, basic income advocates, and for sport – as many as 16 could enter parliament.

This high degree of division ensures that no one party is ever likely to secure a majority, and the Netherlands has been ruled by coalitions – typically composed of several groups in the last few administrations – for over 100 years.

Post-Election Scenarios

Wilders has stated that "the democratic process would end" in the country if the his party ends up as the largest party yet is shut out of government. However, critics and analysts say that first place does not assure government participation and that any governing alliance with a parliamentary majority is democratically valid.

While the final outcome is uncertain and government negotiations could take several months, political observers suggest that following the most extreme government in its recent history, the next Dutch cabinet is expected to be a inclusive alliance led by either the moderate left or moderate right.

Voting Process

Polling stations, including those in the miniature city Madurodam in the capital and the Anne Frank house in Amsterdam, opened at 7.30am (6:30 GMT) and will conclude at 9pm. A usually accurate exit poll is expected shortly after the polls close.

Once voting concludes, an official negotiator will explore possible coalitions that could command a majority in parliament. Potential partners will then draft a governing pact for the coming term and must undergo a vote of confidence in parliament before taking office.