Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the crisis sparked by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for resolving the conflict appeared – briefly – to have been defused. A senior US official spoke of "substantial progress" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its countermove: a renewed assault of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Diplomacy and Destruction
The chain of opposing developments captured the bleak nature of the outgoing year. By day, negotiation efforts are waged: positive announcements are delivered from multiple capitals. Significant resources is allocated on containing certain initiatives. By night, Moscow brutally reminds the world that, for them, military action persists as the primary tool for achieving "peace".
After-Dark Attacks
As the offensive unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's exposure was exposed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor missile launches from enemy soil, a ability afforded by up-to-date information. From observation points, defense planes that had been deployed to engage hostile aerial threats streaked across the sky – advanced fighter aircraft delivered to Ukraine by NATO members.
Moments later, Kyiv's missile defense thundered: multiple launches targeted at a Russian ballistic missile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, presumably delivered by partner states. Every deployment shakes the surroundings, rattling buildings. The instant of fear quickly becomes resigned acknowledgment: perhaps the incoming missile won't strike its target this time, sparing the city from devastation and additional electricity failures.
Continuous Dangers
Following this, a heavy machine gun engaged a unmanned aircraft close by, part of a rapid response unit – almost certainly imported technology. Sadly, the shots failed to hit the hostile drone – it continued its flight toward its objective.
Periodically, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the morning news: seven people killed, destruction and utility failures in many homes as a result of the evening attack. As customarily, everyone still continued their routines – enduring hostilities. But those full day encapsulated Ukraine's vital need on external assistance – a need that European nations are evidently unprepared to replace in the near term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The 28-point plan from US administration generated strong feelings, controversy and deep concern – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after prior negotiation attempts and international summits.
Every new approach from US leadership adheres to the identical sequence: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, manages to fend off. They contain the crisis but never actually win the battle. This pattern will, undoubtedly, persist.
Strategic Calculations
It is convenient to criticize specific actors of persistently promoting Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. Washington works based on a principle familiar among experienced diplomats: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have been unable to protect through force. The White House believes that it is impossible to compel Moscow to abandon the territory that it currently occupies in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The challenge is that while acknowledging this situation, American administration does little to deter Moscow, through statements or actions, from thinking that the status quo will not shift further in its favour in the coming year.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, the Kremlin is certain that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its allies are coming close to fatigue. Their incentive to sign a deal that does not give them the maximum possible gain is almost completely absent. There may be many attempts to stop fighting, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leader remains supremely confident in the outcome.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still persist, gradually sacrificing people and territory but avoiding a total frontline collapse until circumstances change in its benefit.
Present Conditions
Factually, there are no actual prerequisites for a ceasefire. Now, individual motivations are becoming relevant: political desires to negotiate peace and achieve global acclaim, and the government's twin challenges – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the country's interests against any proposal Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their priority does not shift toward homefront challenges. And although their mission will now be considerably more difficult after latest incidents, it remains highly unlikely that this will change their overall approach.
These opposing factors are guiding negotiations.
Assessment and Future
It took a only one week to kill the proposed articles of the most recent proposal. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by American leadership, opposition by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with calming attempts of negotiators, and finally, latest revelations, all achieved their purpose.
While new initiatives based on old ideas are imminent, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter political attacks from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and show particular unwillingness to alter the situation, if they maintain solidarity and enhance their military capacity at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the coming months, mainly require ongoing international assistance.
